The Future
While the situation is looking pretty bleak at the moment, there are a couple things out over the horizon that may just help.
First off, there is the potential for an absolutely massive return of kings three years from now. I’m talking about an all-time high, record-setting type of chinook run if the ball bounces our way and we get a couple lucky breaks. You see, with the low water conditions we had in the spring, state and federal hatcheries trucked and net-pen acclimated nearly all 30 million of the Central Valley’s chinook. That number is considerably higher than in normal years and should lead to lots more adult fish in 2017.
With survival rates of less than 1-percent when left to migrate on their own, studies have showed that trucking chinook smolt to the lower reaches of the system increases survival significantly. Then throw in the net-pen acclimation, which improves river-to-ocean survival by 400 percent, and you can see how the summer and fall of 2017 could be a banner one.
Of course, ocean feeding conditions need to be favorable for those fish to flourish and return as adults, but things are looking good off the California coast. The ocean has been full of krill, sardines and anchovies for the past few years so there is hope.
However, there is something else out there that could mess everything up—or bring relief. Scientists at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) have noticed signs of what could be a very large El Niño event brewing along the equator, which has a chance to bring much-needed rainfall to California next winter.
NOAA closely monitors a series of buoys which measure temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band…and what forecasters are seeing at the moment is potentially huge. In the simplest of terms, an El Niño event is highlighted by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, which can dramatically affect weather worldwide.
In California, El Niños can sometimes lead to vast amounts of rainfall, which would obviously be a welcome respite after three consecutive years of drought. Scientists say that current conditions strongly resemble those observed in the lead-up to the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño event, which brought the West a lot of rain.
But things can change since it is so early in the season. And scientists also caution that there’s no guarantee that an El Niño winter will bring ample rainfall. We’re just going to have to wait and see…
Now, there is a downside to El Niño years too. They result in a rise in sea surface temperatures—which can cause drastic declines in ocean productivity in our region. Food chains are adversely affected and salmon and steelhead populations, in particular, can be hit hard.
So, phew, there you have the situation. Now, it’s just a matter of keeping one’s fingers crossed and waiting to see how it all plays out. Maybe do a rain dance while you’re at it. It can’t hurt…